Managers commonly ask whether a show has the potential to become a top-tier performer, particularly when it is underperforming the rest of the radio station’s time slots. There are many factors, of course, but some shows have a much better chance to win than others. Rating results are an unreliable way to judge a show’s potential, but there is one rating metric that is usually a good indicator.
Before explaining how to look at the metric, there are a few variables in the equation I’m about to share:
Familiarity: How well-established is the show? Only use this for shows that have been on for at least a year.
Format: Niche formats with a smaller cume tend to have a more loyal audience, affecting the percentages in favor of the personalities.
Other Stations: Market size and the number of competitors make a difference. Fewer competitors make it easier for shows to score higher.
Rating Methodology: Stations in metered markets typically have a higher cume than those in markets using diary methodology. Well-established shows in diary markets may score much higher than deserved.
Here’s how to determine if your show has a chance to win.
The Chance to Win Metric
This quick, simple test is particularly helpful for evaluating how difficult it will be for a show to succeed. In some cases, it sheds light on shows with little to no chance of winning. For others, it reveals an exciting opportunity.
Here’s how to do it:
Step One: Cume: Compare the show’s weekly cume (not Daily Cume) for the past 12 months vs. the station’s weekly cume in the same period. Use only the total 12-month figure. This will smooth rating fluctuations. That’s why this only works for shows that have been on for at least a year.
Demographics: Use the scale below only for the overall audience. While it’s okay to examine various demographics to study specific vulnerabilities and opportunities, focus on the total sample to measure potential. Narrowing the demographics will distort the percentages.
Percentages: Convert the cume to percentages to determine the rate of the station’s audience that also listens to the show. The formula is: Show Cume/Station Cume.
For example, the Peppy and Zippy Show has a cume of 30,000. The station reaches 100,000. Calculation: 30,000/100,000 = 30% of the station’s overall cume also listen to Peppy and Zippy.
Guide For Show Potential
The percentages will surprise you and almost always be lower than you expected. But what does it mean? Based on the results of hundreds of shows, use this guide to determine how you’re doing.
Below 20%: If the show reaches less than 20% of the station’s audience after being on for a year, nothing is going on here. This show is in trouble and shows little to no signs of being able to succeed. Drastic measures should be considered, including a new show.
20-30%: This is a broad range, and there’s a big difference between 29% and 21%, but shows in this range at least have a chance to figure it out and become valuable. Shows in this range are not winning but may have potential.
30-40%: A show that reaches 30% is likely to be successful. It usually means the personalities are well-liked. If the AQH share does not support the potential, there’s most likely a product problem (the audience likes the personalities more than what comes out of the speaker), or it may need to create more appointments for listening (or both). 30% should be the first goal you target.
40-50%: Usually, this is a powerful show that should be marketed as a leading reason to listen. However, there are some cases that indicate a station in decline with a strong show that is keeping it viable.
Above 50%: This is a dominant show, usually in Stage 5 (The Love Stage) of the Personality Success Path. Consider offering a long-term contract because the station might suffer if they leave.
Few shows reach 60% or more. They’re usually legendary performers, though there are exceptions with legacy shows (they’ve been on a long time) in small-medium markets (fewer competitive choices) using diary methodology (recall, not actual listening).
Tips
After calculating your show’s performance, do the same for other stations in your market. How do they compare?
Track the number over time. If your show has been on for over a year, calculate every 12 months as a moving average (replace the oldest month with the newest). For example, add a new ratings result from March, and drop the previous March, so you’re looking at 12 months from last April through This March.
To get more granular, compare quarterly results. Do you see seasonal changes? Why do you think that may be happening? You may also gain insight by comparing the same quarter in the previous year to track audience changes.
Conclusion
Isn’t it interesting that even the most dominant shows fail to attract 40% of the station’s Weekly Cume? That’s why turning a station’s listeners into morning show listeners remains the fastest and easiest path to higher ratings.
This metric is not foolproof but is one of the easiest and best ways to evaluate if a show has a chance to win. Do the math. Does your show measure have a chance to win?
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